Week 1 MNF: Vikings-Bears Preview, Props, Prediction

Mon Sep 8 5:03pm ET
Field Level Media

Week 1 of the 2025 NFL regular season concludes with a matchup of bitter division rivals with the Minnesota Vikings traveling to take on the Chicago Bears at Soldier Field.

It's a significant litmus test for both teams to kick off their NFC North slates.

The Bears open at home seeking to prove they're a playoff contender and that second-year quarterback Caleb Williams made significant offseason strides under new head coach Ben Johnson. The Vikings went one-and-done in the playoffs after an 14-win regular season, and handed the keys of the offense to their own second-year quarterback in J.J. McCarthy, whose rookie season was wiped out by a knee injury.

ODDS AND TRENDS

The Vikings are consensus 1.5-point favorites on the road, with DraftKings and BetRivers offering them at -108.

The Bears have drawn 56 percent of the total bets and 76 percent of the spread-line money at +100 at BetRivers. However, the moneyline has been nearly split while the Bears have been backed by 76 percent of the money at +100. Minnesota's moneyline has a far less enticing payout at -121, although the book reported the largest wager on the game was $16,350 on the Vikings' ML when it was at -127.

Minnesota has lost five of its past six road openers, and the home team has covered the spread in five of the team's past six games overall. Meanwhile, seven of the Bears' past eight home openers have gone under the total points line, which stood at 43.5 at BetRivers on Monday afternoon.

PROP PICKS

--Over 43.5 Total Points (-110 at DraftKings): We're bucking the stats trend mentioned above primarily because of the multiple injury issues the Bears have in their secondary. It is McCarthy's first career regular-season start, but coach Kevin O'Connell typically features a high percentage passing game at the outset and the Vikings will need to move the ball to keep pace with a Bears offense that features plenty of downfield threats for Williams.

--Justin Jefferson Over 70 Receiving Yards (-165 at DraftKings): This has been the most popular player prop at the book, with Jefferson topping 70 yards in all but four games last season. That was with Sam Darnold at the helm. It will be interesting to see what level of chemistry Jefferson has built with McCarthy, who will be without the suspended Jordan Addison. That will mean more snaps for recently acquired Adam Thielen, fellow veteran Jalen Nailor and third-round rookie Tai Felton.

INSIDE EDGE

Inside Edge's Remarkable engine showed that Minnesota led the NFL last season with an average of 10.4 yards on pass attempts up the middle. The league average was 8.1. The Vikings' running backs also led the lead with 21 targets inside the red zone.

Meanwhile, Chicago's defense led the league in allowing an average of only one passing touchdown per game and tied for the fewest penalties with only 27 in 2024.

THE NEWS

Vikings defensive coordinator Brian Flores never met a blitz package he didn't like, the type of hyper-aggressive approach prone to leaving a young quarterback rattled.

Like-minded Dennis Allen begins his first season calling the shots for the Bears' defense on Monday night and undoubtedly reminded his veteran starters there's fresh meat on the menu as McCarthy makes his first career start -- in primetime at historic Soldier Field.

In the final game of Week 1, Johnson will make his debut as head coach of the Bears and has the pelts on the wall to break any ties between defensive masterminds. Johnson ran up 30 or more points in each of his past four gridiron chess matches with Flores during a record-setting run of success as offensive coordinator of the Detroit Lions.

A one-man offensive think tank, Johnson anticipates many new looks and imaginative disguises from Flores and the Vikings to test Williams, who will be playing behind an offensive line with three new starters. Johnson said he's been studying Flores for years, dating to the former Miami Dolphins head coach's training as defensive coordinator of the New England Patriots.

It was in that setting at the knee of Bill Belichick where Flores built an ever-adapting scheme that thrived on not showing the same looks.

"He does that as a coordinator. You don't really know what you're going to get," Johnson said of Flores. "You have to adjust in the middle of the game. Our guys have to be open-minded and be willing to understand that we're going to get hit in the teeth a couple times. It's the nature of doing business with this crew. They have some really good players. They're really well-coached. They're really ball-conscious, they're going after the ball all the time."

Minnesota tied for the NFL lead with 33 takeaways in 2024 and ranked fifth in points allowed per game. To address one consistent shortfall, the Vikings added two veteran defensive tackles, Javon Hargrave and Jonathan Allen, who can also wreak havoc on passing downs.

Williams, drafted nine spots ahead of McCarthy as the No. 1 selection in the 2024 draft, should be better protected in his second season. He never looked like a rookie facing the Flores defense in two starts against Minnesota last season, throwing three TD passes with zero interceptions with a passer rating of 96.7.

The Vikings didn't have to show their entire hand to Williams in last season's win at Chicago. The Bears erased an 11-point deficit before Minnesota pulled out the 30-27 overtime victory behind Darnold. Darnold exited for Seattle in free agency, clearing the QB1 role for McCarthy, who is recovered from the two right knee surgeries that cost him his rookie season.

A top injury concern for the Bears is left cornerback Jaylon Johnson. He said this week he's hopeful for a return from an offseason groin injury that kept him off the field the entire preseason. He was officially listed as questionable on Saturday after taking part in limited practice for the third consecutive day.

Bears general manager Ryan Poles, who was an offensive lineman in the NFL, restocked the offensive line with trades for guards Joe Thuney and Jonah Jackson. He also signed pricey free-agent center Drew Dalman and continued to pump assets into building an arsenal of playmakers around Williams.

After drafting Williams and wide receiver Rome Odunze in the top 10 of the 2024 draft, the Bears used the No. 10 pick in April to select Michigan tight end Colston Loveland and added dynamic Missouri wide receiver Luther Burden III in the second round.

INJURY REPORT

Besides Jaylon Johnson, the Bears added fellow defensive back Kyler Gordon (hamstring) as questionable. Linebacker T.J. Edwards (hamstring) is doubtful, and he could miss his first game in more than three seasons. That could mean increased snaps for rookie fourth-round pick Ruben Hyppolite II.

Bears rookie running back Kyle Monangai (hamstring) was removed from the injury report after practicing in full on Saturday. Fellow running back Roschon Johnson (foot) is questionable along with special teams standout Josh Blackwell (groin)

For Minnesota, running back Zavier Scott (ankle) and defensive end Elijah Williams (hamstring) were ruled out, while safety Harrison Smith (illness) is doubtful. Left tackle Christian Darrisaw (knee) is questionable.

THEY SAID IT

"I just try to be completely present. At the end of the day, there's going to be anxious, excitement and a lot of adrenaline. I know I'm going to be amped up. At the end of the day, I know (coaches) will put me in a great position and my teammates around me will do everything they can to make sure we are successful every play." --McCarthy, who grew up in the Chicago area. They first game he attended was a 34-31 Vikings win at Soldier Field in 2007.

"I've known Caleb for a long time. I think the world of him. He just continues to get better and better. You can see it when he starts creating off-schedule and that athleticism. We had him dead to rights a couple of times and he gets out and makes huge plays. It's going to be a challenge. ... I look forward to competing against him because he's going to be a really good player." --O'Connell, who met extensively with Williams leading up to the 2024 draft.

PREDICTION

This could be a coming of age party for Williams, who threw four touchdowns without an interception in two meetings last year. McCarthy has played in plenty of raucous environments in the past without getting rattled often, but Soldier Field on a Monday night to begin the season is a tall task, especially without Addison opposite Jefferson. --Bears 27, Vikings 23

Week 1 MNF: Vikings-Bears Preview, Props, Prediction

The Paur Report