Pitching Primer: Week 27

Fri Sep 19 10:18am ET
By MIKE BARNER
Contributing Writer

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Sale could come up big last week


We have reached the final week of the regular season. As teams fight for playoff positioning, fantasy managers are looking to make a push for a title of their own. Let’s dig into five projected two-start pitchers for Week 27 and discuss what their matchups could mean for their fantasy production.

Chris Sale, Atlanta Braves: vs. WAS, vs. PIT

It has been a disappointing season for the Braves, who have already clinched a losing record. Part of their struggles can be attributed to Sale only starting 19 games because of injuries. He made his return from the IL at the end of August and has allowed one or no runs in three of his four starts. He recorded at least nine strikeouts in all four starts and threw 106 pitches in his last outing.

There is a chance that Sale doesn’t start on the final day of the season with the Braves out of the playoff hunt. However, he has only thrown 115 innings this season, so he hasn’t been overworked. If he does make both starts, he has the potential to dominate. Both the Nationals and the Pirates rank inside the bottom-10 in baseball in runs scored and OPS.

Luis Gil, New York Yankees: vs. CWS, vs. BAL

Gil struggled in his last start, allowing five runs (four earned) over 4 2/3 innings against the Twins. Prior to that, he had gone seven straight starts in which he allowed two or fewer runs. Even with that great stretch in hand, Gil has a 14.4% walk rate that has contributed to his 1.50 WHIP for the season. Also concerning is that his strikeout rate has fallen from 26.8% last season to 17.9% this year.

The Yankees are still in the hunt for the AL East title, but the more likely outcome is that they land a Wild Card spot. They are still in a battle for the top Wild Card spot, and it could come down to the final day of the regular season. That’s good news for the possibility of Gil making both of these starts. The White Sox and Orioles both rank inside the bottom-10 in baseball in runs scored, while the Orioles have struck out the fourth-most times. Even with his control issues, be sure to lock Gil into fantasy starting lineups.

Justin Verlander, San Francisco Giants: vs. STL, vs. COL

The 42-year-old Verlander has made 27 starts this season, compiling a 3.75 ERA and a 4.27 xERA. His strikeout rate is only 20.7% and he has a 1.34 WHIP, so he’s not much more than a streaming candidate in fantasy for when he has a favorable matchup. Things could be much worse, but he has limited damage by only allowing 0.8 HR/9.

Despite his age, Verlander has shown no signs of being tired at the end of the season. He has thrown at least 101 pitches in four of his last five starts, allowing a total of three runs and recording 28 strikeouts over 31 innings. The Giants are fighting for the last Wild Card spot in the National League, and even if they are eliminated by the time they reach their final game, Verlander could take the hill as a bit of a celebration for his outstanding career. The Cardinals and Rockies both rank inside the bottom-six in baseball in OPS, making this a great week to stream Verlander.

Gavin Williiams, Cleveland Guardians: vs. DET, vs. TEX

Williams dominated the Tigers in his last start, finishing with nine strikeouts over five scoreless innings. As the Guardians make a push for a playoff spot, Williams has a 2.10 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP over his last 11 starts. During that stretch, he posted 66 strikeouts across 64 1/3 innings.

The Guardians are not only in contention for a Wild Card spot, but their recent run of success has them back in the race for the AL Central title. Expect them to deploy their starters as usual. Making Williams even more appealing for his two-start week is that both of his outings will be at home. He has a 3.59 xFIP and a 1.20 WHIP at home, compared to a 4.78 xFIP and a 1.36 WHIP on the road.

Michael McGreevy, St. Louis Cardinals: at SF, at CHC

While he never struck out a ton of hitters in the minors, McGreevy only has a 14.9% strikeout rate with the Cardinals this season. He has at least shown good control with a 4.2% walk rate that has helped him record a 1.20 WHIP. However, with his inability to miss bats, McGreevy doesn’t come with a ton of fantasy upside.

Even with his lack of strikeouts, McGreevy is worth streaming for those who are desperate for innings down the stretch. The Giants only have a .688 OPS in San Francisco this season. The Cubs can be a difficult matchup, but McGreevy is projected to face them on the final day of the regular season. The Cubs have already clinched a playoff spot and are likely to play in the Wild Card Round, which means they could rest several of their regular position players when facing McGreevy.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.

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