Bradish carries risk this week

There will be no shortage of games during Week 24, meaning we have a lot of two-start pitchers to ponder. There are some big names among them, as well as some underwhelming options that it might be best to avoid. Let’s highlight five players who are projected to take the mound twice each and discuss what their matchups might mean for their fantasy values.

Paul Skenes, Pittsburgh Pirates: vs. SF, vs. LAA

Skenes is fading down the stretch. Prior to Tuesday’s outing against the Padres, he had a 5.67 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP over his previous nine starts. The Pirates have given him more time between starts lately, as well as limiting his pitch count. In a bit of a glimmer of hope, he bounced back to log six shutout innings in San Diego. However, he only had four strikeouts and was limited to 87 pitchers. The Pirates currently need to pass four teams to grab the final Wild Card spot in the National League. As they continue to fade, it’s not out of the question that Skenes could be shut down at some point.

For now, Skenes is lined up to make two starts next week. As bad as he has been, these are two favorable matchups. The Giants are 19th in baseball in wRC+, while the Angels are 27th. The Angels also have the second-highest strikeout rate. Keep rolling Skenes out there in fantasy.

Jacob deGrom, Texas Rangers: vs. ATH, vs. TB

deGrom was hammered in his last start, giving up eight runs over 3 2/3 innings against the White Sox. It continued his Jekyll and Hyde performance down the stretch. Over his last seven starts, he gave up at least five runs three times. In each of the other four outings, he permitted two or fewer runs. Still, his recent blowups have left him with a 4.21 ERA that is on pace to be the highest mark of his career.

The good news for deGrom is that both of his Week 24 starts will come at home. He has a 2.75 xFIP and a 0.92 WHIP there, compared to a 3.72 xFIP and a 1.46 WHIP on the road. Facing the Athletics away from their hitter-friendly home park is also a significant win. They have a .649 OPS on the road, compared to a .794 OPS at home. The Rays are a formidable foe, but there’s no reason to feel anything but confident in deGrom for next week.

Payton Tolle, Boston Red Sox: vs. SEA, at BAL

Tolle has not allowed more than three runs in a start in over a month. In six of his last eight starts, he emerged with at least seven strikeouts. It has been a continuation of a breakout season that has seen him record a 3.09 ERA that is supported by an even better 2.69 xERA. Opponents only have a 33.7% hard-hit rate against him, which he helped him record a 1.09 WHIP.

The Mariners continue to struggle at the plate, scoring the fewest runs in baseball. They have the seventh-highest strikeout rate in the majors, which isn’t helping matters. The Orioles have put more runs on the board, but they have the fifth-highest strikeout rate. Tolle has already faced them twice, allowing four runs and posting 14 strikeouts over 11 2/3 innings. As the Red Sox surge towards the playoffs, Tolle should continue to shine.

Clay Holmes, Chicago Cubs: vs. MIL, at MIA

The Cubs added Holmes and Kevin Gausman at the trade deadline to bolster their rotation for what they hope is a lengthy playoff run. Holmes spent most of the season on the injured list for the Mets, but made his Cubs debut August 8 with a poor outing against the Royals in which he allowed four runs over four innings. Since then, he has twirled three masterful starts in which he allowed just one run over 19 innings. During that span, he registered a 0.74 WHIP.

Holmes won’t have easy matchups next week. The Brewers are fifth in OPS, while the Marlins are 11th. Neither team strikes out much, either. Strikeouts aren’t Holmes’ forte to begin with, given his 18.2% strikeout rate as a full-time starter last season. There is some risk that comes with starting him in fantasy, but for those who need starts in a 12-team league, he is still worth considering.

Kyle Bradish, Baltimore Orioles: at COL, vs. BOS

Bradish is up to 143 innings this season after injures limited him to just 71 1/3 total innings the previous two seasons. It hasn’t been smooth sailing, with his WHIP sitting at 1.41. In his last outing, he allowed seven runs over 4 1/3 innings to the Cardinals. He’s not fooling many hitters, posting a 21.8% strikeout rate. He throws his sinker, which only has an 11.4% whiff rate, 35.6% of the time.

Talk about two disastrous matchups awaiting him next week. Facing the Rockies at Coors Field can be a tall order even for some of the best pitchers in the league. They have a .771 OPS there, compared to a .714 OPS on the road. The Red Sox have become one of the hottest teams in baseball, posting a .811 OPS over the last 30 days. No other team has an OPS higher than .769 during that span. Even fantasy managers in deeper formats should avoid starting Bradish for these matchups.

Mike Barner has been covering fantasy sports since 2007. His work has appeared in Sports Illustrated, Yahoo, SportsLine and RotoWire. Mike was also a finalist for the 2018 FSWA Basketball Writer of the Year award. Follow Mike on Twitter @rotomikebarner.