Draft Day Winners and Losers

Mon Apr 28 11:32am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer

Swift is looking good after draft

The draft is always so exciting, seeing where all the players get picked. But after the draft, the big issue is figuring out what it all means for their fantasy value. We thought it would be a good idea to look at some of the biggest fantasy winners and losers from draft day. These are some of the players that were picked but also some of the guys that were already on rosters, seeing their fantasy value get impacted from the draft. Adjust your rankings accordingly!

WINNERS

D’Andre Swift, RB, Bears. The thought was that the Bears would use an early-round pick on a running back but that didn’t happen. Ashton Jeanty didn’t last until their pick in the first round. This is a huge win for Swift, who is the clear lead back in an offense that has produced some huge seasons for running backs. His stock is going way up right now. The Bears could still add a running back before the start of the season but that probably won’t put a huge dent in Swift’s fantasy value. He has the potential to be a low-end No. 1 fantasy back.

Omarion Hampton, RB, Chargers. Hampton seems a great fit for the Chargers offense. He is a bruising runner that does his best work on the inside. He can wear down a defense. This just seems like the perfect landing spot for Hampton. He has Najee Harris to compete with for carries, but Hampton is the much better back of the two that brings more to the table. He can be a solid No. 2 fantasy back from day one in this offense.

Bryce Young, QB, Panthers. The Panthers are doing all they can to help Young succeed. Carolina added another receiver to the mix, taking Tetairoa McMillan with their first pick. The team also added Jimmy Horn Jr. later in the draft and tight end Mitchell Evans. All could make impacts as rookies. Young had a strong finish to last year and things are looking up for him even more after the draft. His stock is rising.

Quinshon Judkins, RB, Browns. The Browns got their No. 1 back, getting Judkins in the second round. This is a great landing spot for Judkins. We know the team also picked Dylan Sampson a few rounds later, but they needed depth at the position. Judkins has three-down ability in an offense that could be run heavy. His total yardage potential is very high for his rookie season. He can be a solid No. 2 fantasy back because of all the volume he can get.

Caleb Williams, QB, Bears. Chicago just keeps giving Williams more and more talent to work with offensively. He is setup as well as any young quarterback in the game. He gets another top-notch pass-caching tight end in Colston Loveland and a No. 3 receiver in Luther Burden that might have been as talented as any receiver in the draft. The Bears are just loaded with options in the passing game for Williams. And don’t forget he has head coach Ben Johnson calling plays, which is another huge plus.

R.J. Harvey, RB, Broncos. Harvey landed in one of the best spots for any running back. The Broncos have a glaring need at running back and Harvey should get a chance to start from day one in this emerging offense. Harvey is a super quick back with great moves in space. He has top-notch vision and playmaking ability. And a back in this offense usually catches a lot of passes, so Harvey’s floor should be high as a rookie. He could emerge as a legit No. 2 fantasy back.

Tyler Shough, QB, Saints. Outside of first-overall pick Cam Ward, Shough might be the best bet for playing time of any rookie quarterback. The Saints selected Shough in the second round of this year’s draft. Derek Carr continues to have shoulder issues and you have to wonder if the team just moves on from him at some point in the near future. Shough could play for new head coach Kellen Moore sooner than later. He seems a good fit for Moore’s offense. Shough is a big quarterback with a big arm. He also moves around the pocket well for a man of his size. He gets rid of the ball quickly and does well in hitting his receivers on time.

Jack Bech, WR, Raiders. It is all about landing spots when it comes to fantasy and Bech lands in one of the best for any rookie receiver. The Raiders have all sorts of openings at receiver and Bech fills an immediate need. He could rack up the catches opposite of Jakobi Meyers. Bech is expected to start right away for the Raiders. He is a physical receiver that excels at the contested catch.

LOSERS

Cole Kmet, TE, Bears. Kmet is likely to fall to second on the depth chart after the Bears selected Colston Loveland in the first round. Kmet had some potential in this new offense, but his stock takes a huge hit with Loveland around and likely getting first shot to start. Kmet should get some weekly work but probably not enough to warrant much if any fantasy play.

Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Patriots. Stevenson seemed to fall out of favor with the Patriots late last season and now the team drafted TreVeyon Henderson to compete with Stevenson for carries. We know a new coaching staff is in place, but it seems Henderson could be their guy going forward. Stevenson is trending the wrong way.

Packers receiving room. The Packers took two more receivers in this year’s draft, picking Matthew Golden and Savion Williams in the first three rounds. The team already had Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs, Christian Watson and Dontayvion Wicks on the roster. This receiver room is super crowded. All these players outside of maybe Golden will be a risk to take because you just don’t know where they will be on the depth chart when the season opens. It is a scary situation for fantasy owners.

Luther Burden, WR, Bears. Burden is a super talented player with a high weekly ceiling but he lands in a bad spot for his fantasy value. He should be the No. 3 receiver but has both D.J. Moore and Rome Odunze ahead of him on the depth chart. This will hurt his target potential on a weekly basis. We think he will have some big games along the way in this offense but could disappear some other weeks.

Najee Harris, RB, Chargers. It was looking good for Harris before the draft but the addition of Omarion Hampton to the roster was not good for him. Hampton should be the starter from day one. Harris will still get some chance but remember, he signed a one-year deal with the Chargers. He is not the future at the position. Hampton is the guy going forward. Harris will be hit or miss in his current role.

Harold Fannin, TE, Browns. Fannin was one of our favorite sleepers before the draft, but he might have a hard time reaching his potential in an offense that already has a really talented pass-catching tight end ahead of him on the depth chart. David Njoku is going to remain a huge part of this offense and get much of the playing time at tight end. Fannin will be really hit or miss as the No. 2 tight end in an offense with quarterback concerns.

Christian Kirk, WR, Texans. The Texans acquired Kirk this offseason, trying to find a dependable starter opposite Nico Collins. But the team didn’t stop at Kirk, drafting two solid receivers in Jaylin Noel and Jayden Higgins. These guys could cut into the playing time of Kirk this year. Things look a little more clouded in Houston than they did before the draft.

Quinton Johnston, WR, Chargers. Johnston took some steps forward last year but was still inconsistent. The Chargers picked Tre Harris in the second round. Harris has similar attributes to Johnston but looks to be the much more consistent of the two. Harris could take over for Johnston as soon as he gets up to speed in the offense. Johnston might end up a boom or bust pick for fantasy owners.

Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.

Draft Day Winners and Losers

The Paur Report