Fri Jun 27 4:32pm ET
By HOWARD BENDER
Fantasy Writer
Rice is moving up drafts
As the calendar flips to July and NFL training camps get ready to open, fantasy football best ball drafts are kicking into high gear. The Beat Bender $10,000 Best Ball Tournament is already 30 percent full and the $25,000 Best Ball Championships are filling drafts every single day. We should see record-setting numbers of best ball participants by the time the 2025 NFL season opens.
With so many people joining the fray, the need to step up your research becomes even more prevalent. But it’s not just about studying the recent news, the training camp reports and the NFL team depth charts. You need to study the draft trends as well. Who is on the rise? Which players are falling down draft boards? Where are the best pockets to find value? This is why we study the fantasy football ADP and trends.
While RT Sports does a tremendous job with their ADP, allowing you to study it for each specific contest, we’re going to focus today on the best ball trends. Playing in large-field tournaments like these requires a different mindset. People stack in best ball way more than they do in season-long leagues and everyone is typically shooting for upside. That’s not to say some of the high-floor, “boring” players don’t get drafted, but, for the most part, people are looking to shoot the moon. No one wins the grand prize playing it safe.
So, let’s take a look at some of the more recent ADP risers and fallers to see just how much interest we may or may not have.
ADP Risers:
Rashee Rice, WR Kansas City Chiefs (ADP: 47.14)
The rise of Rashee Rice and his push into the top-50 overall has always been expected, but he’s taking a meteoric trip that could land him in the second round of some drafts. That does seem a little high, given how Patrick Mahomes has routinely spread the ball around over the last few seasons, but the talent is off-the-charts and it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see him open the year as the Chiefs No. 1 receiver and be an absolute target-monster. We’ve been hearing a lot out of Chiefs camp that they want to push the ball downfield more and with concerns of Travis Kelce’s recent decline and Marquise Brown’s injury history, the groupthink continues to push Rice up boards everywhere. Enjoy the price now and stock up while you can. If he does push into the second round, the overall value will lessen.
Justin Fields, QB New York Jets (ADP: 102.37)
Organize the ADP by position and you’ll see Fields coming off the board as QB13 and one of the biggest risers at quarterback. A month ago, he was almost an afterthought, but as draft season has kicked in and more people are seeking out mobile quarterbacks with rushing upside, Fields has vaulted past names like Brock Purdy and Justin Herbert. He can be a very polarizing player these days as the college crowd still adores him while those who had their hopes and expectations crushed in seasons past, don’t want anything to do with him. But anyone who has played this game knows a quarterback who can rush for 50 yards and a touchdown adds so much to your overall fantasy production. Fields has a first-time offensive coordinator looking to make a splash, he’s been reunited with his old college chum, Garrett Wilson, and everything is being designed to cater to his strengths. Even with the ADP increase, Fields should produce strong value in return.
J.K. Dobbins, RB Denver Broncos (ADP: 129.56)
The rise in ADP can easily be attributed to Dobbins’ recent signing with the Broncos. While most of us were worried about deciding between Audric Estime and Jaleel McLaughlin as the complement to R.J. Harvey, Dobbins landing in Denver actually gives us a little more security in how we view the team’s backfield. It was always going to be shared in some capacity but the expected split and the roles both he and Harvey play should allow for some standalone value for the veteran. Dobbins can be elusive in the outside zone, but he is also a solid pass-catcher. If we’ve learned anything over the years, it’s that Broncos OC Joe Lombardi loves throwing to the running backs. In fact, his backfields have ranked among the top five for running back receptions over the last 18 seasons. That’s crazy when you think about it, but not so much when you look at the numbers for guys like Alvin Kamara and Austin Ekeler, both of whom thrived in Lombardi’s scheme.
ADP Fallers:
Sam LaPorta, TE Detroit Lions (ADP: 60.08)
Oh, how the mighty have fallen. Remember this time last year when the ADP told you to take LaPorta in the second round? How’d that turn out? But while LaPorta’s value was nowhere to be found after drafting him that high, we’re content to go back to the well this year at his current price tag of a fifth-round pick. Maybe even the sixth or seventh, depending on how forgiving your league mates can be. The Lions didn’t do anything to bolster their receiving corps, so LaPorta should remain the third-most targeted pass-catcher on the team. My preference might be to take Trey McBride or George Kittle before him, but I’ve had no issues taking him at a slight discount and hope that last season was an aberration.
Stefon Diggs, WR New England Patriots (ADP: 109.75)
As the kids say these days, “buy the dip.” Sure, there have been some reports that mention the possibility of Diggs missing the first few games of the regular season and maybe that’s why we’re seeing the drop in ADP, but my research hasn’t found that to be of much concern. It was an errant report from one of the local Boston papers that was suggesting Diggs’ value even IF he were to miss time. But it doesn’t sound like he’s landing on the PUP list and should be good to go for Week 1. To get an alpha receiver at this kind of a discount is huge and you really don’t need to shy away from it. Should Diggs see at least 120 targets, he is going to provide you with major value. Drake Maye is already looking to make a splash with his new toy, so for best ball purposes, it’s a no-brainer for me.
Anthony Richardson, QB Indianapolis Colts (ADP: 172.17)
Now this is a dip I’m not buying. Sure, the pick is almost free at this point, but with all signs pointing toward Daniel Jones being the starter, I’m not so sure it’s worth the roster spot should he even start a small handful of games. Richardson is not a strong passer and for you to get any value in a best ball contest, he’s going to have to rush for 100 yards or multiple touchdowns to make any sort of an impact. We tried, people. We tried. But there’s no reason to make the same mistake this year that we made over the last two seasons.
Bender out!
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In a recent appearance on the 'Bussin' with the Boys' podcast, San Francisco 49ers tight end George Kittle sang the praises of rookie wide receiver Isaiah Neyor. "He's a freak. He was running a route, and he got nine and a half yards in two strides. It was insane," said Kittle. "We watched it ten times in the tight end room. We were like 'how is he doing this?' At the bare minimum, he should make the practice squad. He's a freak." Neyor signed with the 49ers back in April as an undrafted free agent out of Nebraska, and while his college stats won't blow you away, the 24-year-old's athleticism is enough to do so (99th percentile speed score). It won't be easy to find playing time in a crowded room of viable pass-catchers, but the 6-foot-4 rookie should undoubtedly be on fantasy managers' radars in dynasty leagues.
From RotoBaller
Nick Harris of the Fort Worth Star-Telegram reports that Dallas Cowboys running back Miles Sanders split first-team work during mandatory minicamp with backfield mate Javonte Williams. Dallas is projected to have one of the worst RB rooms in the league this season, headlined by Sanders, Williams, and fifth-round rookie Jaydon Blue. Blue has apparently taken to the NFL quickly, but one of the veterans projects to begin the season as Dallas' lead back. It seems more likely that this backfield is destined for a running-back-by-committee approach, which would obviously dent the value of all three participants. For now, expect a primary split between the two vets, with Sanders handling passing situations and the Cowboys turning to Williams more often than not for short-yardage work.
From RotoBaller
AtoZSports.com's Easton Freeze reports that the Tennessee Titans may alter the role that rookie wide receiver Chimere Dike played on the field during his time at college. The 23-year-old has speed for days and was deployed on a steady diet of nine routes during his tenure at the collegiate level. Rightfully so, when you consider he averaged a whopping 18.6 yards per reception -- good for a top-20 mark in the FBS. However, Freeze notes that Tennessee could opt to use him as a big-slot asset and that it wouldn't be surprising to see him garner a role early on in the offense due to his versatility. Dike's athleticism makes him an enticing option, and the Titans' lack of legitimate receiving weapons only furthers the intrigue. The rookie's playing time could be sparse to start, but he should get a decent chance at snaps eventually. He's an interesting dynasty dart-throw.
From RotoBaller
Per Jason Reed of BoltBeat.com, Los Angeles Chargers rookie wide receiver Keandre Lambert-Smith is not guaranteed a spot on the team's 53-man roster. Reed reports that the fifth-round pick in April's draft is currently in a roster battle with four other wideouts for, presumably, the final spot in LA's WR corps. Lambert-Smith profiles as more of a developmental prospect, never having eclipsed 53 receptions or 1,000 yards across five years at two schools (Penn State, Auburn). However, he carries a leg up on fellow pass-catchers Jalen Reagor and Brenden Rice due to his status as a rookie. Reed notes the Chargers could decide to carry seven wide receivers on their active roster, though that'd be a rare occurrence. For now, the 23-year-old will have to show out during training camp to ensure his spot with Los Angeles.
From RotoBaller
Despite the fact that Los Angeles Rams outside linebacker Byron Young has already had two strong seasons in the NFL with 15.5 sacks, outside linebackers coach Joe Coniglio said he's noticed how "intentional" Young has been going into his third season in the NFL. Coniglio said he's challenged the former third-rounder to continue to work on his "consistency," because "when he's at his best, it's a lot of fun to watch." "I think he's going to take another step forward in regards to his game, his ability to affect games, his ability to disrupt offenses and be the player that he's capable of being," Coniglio said. The 27-year-old has 123 tackles (76 solo), 15.5 sacks, 20 tackles for loss, 32 QB hits, three forced fumbles and a fumble recovery in 34 games (32 starts) in his first two years. Young is one of the Rams' key young pass-rushers.
From RotoBaller
ESPN's Jenna Laine writes that Tampa Bay Buccaneers linebacker SirVocea Dennis had one of the most impressive offseasons of any defender on the team. "First day of OTAs, made one of the best plays I've ever seen a linebacker make," linebacker Anthony Walker Jr. said. "He's special, man. Very cerebral and knows the game very well. Can really do everything on the field as a pass dropper, a blitzer and a run defender." Dennis only played in four games in 2024 due to a season-ending shoulder injury that he suffered in Week 4, and the middle of Tampa's defense was more vulnerable as a result. The 25-year-old was selected in the fifth round (153rd overall) in 2023 out of Pittsburgh. He looked like he was on his way toward a breakout season last year before his injury, as he had 22 tackles (14 solo) and a sack in essentially only three games.
From RotoBaller
Arizona Cardinals rookie fourth-round inside linebacker Cody Simon has caught the attention of head coach Jonathan Gannon in a short amount of time this offseason, according to ESPN's Josh Weinfuss. "He's definitely flashed here," Gannon said. "We got him playing a couple different spots, so that's good. He is playing on fourth down right now, so he is learning all that. He's eager to learn. He doesn't make mistakes twice and he's got juice. He's physical, just like all those guys. Long way to go. But I like where he is at." The 23-year-old has also taken on the responsibility of wearing the green dot, which has added to the steep learning curve heading into his first year in the NFL. The Ohio State product was plenty productive on college for the Buckeyes, but even though he's flashed during the offseason program, he might have to wait for a full-time role in Arizona.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers All-Pro pass-rusher T.J. Watt is due to around $21 million in the last year of his current contract, but the question for the Steelers is whether they are willing to pay a player that will turn 31 this fall upwards of $40 million per year on a new extension. NFL Network's Tom Pelissero believes that the two sides will get something done before either training camp or the start of the 2025 regular season, and when it is done, it will reset the edge-rush market. Watt has made the Pro Bowl each of the last seven seasons and has been an All-Pro four times in his career while leading the NFL in sacks in three of the last five years. The downside is he has an extensive injury history and dropped to 11.5 sacks in 17 regular-season starts a year ago. The Steelers and Watt are currently in a stalemate, but with Pittsburgh all-in on 2025, it's highly unlikely that Watt will be traded.
From RotoBaller
NFL.com's Coral Smith reports that the Pittsburgh Steelers have signed general manager Omar Khan to a new three-year contract on Thursday. The financial details were not noted. Khan has been a member of the Steelers' organization since 2001, but took over his current role in 2022 from predecessor Kevin Colbert. The 48-year-old, known for his aggressive offseason moves, has undoubtedly been entertaining as the team's GM. However, despite continuing the franchise's winning ways, playoff wins -- particularly deep playoff runs -- have been the issue. The hope is that will change in 2025, with a revamped wide receiver room led by DK Metcalf, veteran signal-caller Aaron Rodgers at the helm, and the recent acquisition of tight end Jonnu Smith. Still, they share a division with two of the more brutal AFC squads (Bengals, Ravens). Pittsburgh hasn't won more than ten games or sat atop the AFC North since 2020, but they're pushing their chips all-in ahead of the upcoming campaign.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers wide receiver coach Zach Azzanni noted during the team's minicamp that he believes wide receiver Calvin Austin III is poised to step into the offense's No. 2 pass-catching role. "I think that '2' spot is all Calvin's right now," said Azzanni. The Memphis alum put together his best statistical season in 2024 with a decent 36/548/4 line as the team's third-leading wideout. However, even with the departure of ex-teammate George Pickens vacating 103 targets, it won't be an easy path to fantasy relevance. Pickens was replaced by DK Metcalf, who will garner his fair share of looks, and Austin III will now have to contend with two viable options at tight end in Pat Freiermuth and the newly acquired Jonnu Smith. The 26-year-old offers the most juice on the team, but Pittsburgh's propensity to run and productive teammates will likely limit his fantasy value outside of best ball formats.
From RotoBaller
ESPN's David Newton writes that it was obvious to teammates that Carolina Panthers second-year linebacker Chau Smith-Wade had a stellar offseason and will be a factor for the team in 2025. "Man, I think he's been the most impressive player," Pro Bowl cornerback Jaycee Horn said. "Chau took advantage of an opportunity," head coach Dave Canales said. "He made tackles. He had an opportunity on an interception, and he made it." Newton adds that Smith-Wade's ability to play corner, nickel and safety makes him even more valuable to a young defense that finished last in the NFL in 2024. The 22-year-old ended his rookie campaign on Injured Reserve in December due to an illness. The former fifth-rounder finished 2024 with 39 tackles (24 solo) an interception and a forced fumble in 14 games (four starts). Smith-Wade had taken over the slot role before his illness sidelined him.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons head coach Raheem Morris thinks that linebacker Divine Deablo is capable of wearing the green dot as essentially the quarterback of the defense in 2025, according to ESPN's Marc Raimondi. Morris has been impressed with Deablo's size (6-foot-3), length and speed, and he has a realistic shot at winning a starting job at inside linebacker next to Kaden Elliss. The 26-year-old former third-rounder (80th overall) by the Las Vegas Raiders in 2021 out of Virginia Tech had just 63 tackles (35 solo) and one sack in 14 starts in his fourth year with the Raiders in 2024, which was his lowest tackle output since his rookie season. It sound like Deablo will have a great chance for a bounce-back season in his first year with the Falcons, but he's probably not going to be on the fantasy radar in IDP leagues. Deablo has 100-plus tackles just once in his four years in the NFL.
From RotoBaller
ESPN's Kevin Seifert writes that Minnesota Vikings cornerback Isaiah Rodgers showed playmaking ability while also showing off his speed as a kickoff returner during offseason workouts, demonstrating why the Vikings think he's a likely starter for them despite being a relatively obscure player since the Indianapolis Colts took him in the sixth round back in 2020. "He's been a great addition," defensive coordinator Brian Flores said. "He's got great football IQ and acumen." Flores said he's been tracking Rodgers since he played at the University of Massachusetts. The 27-year-old signed a two-year, $15 million contract this offseason. He was suspended for all of 2023 due to gambling but played in 15 regular-season games for the Eagles in 2024 and had 26 tackles (17 solo) and a forced fumble in 15 regular-season games (three starts). He should have a bigger role in Minnesota.
From RotoBaller
Detroit Lions head coach Dan Campbell said he sees new defensive back Avonte Maddox as a guy who will "fit right in with us" after evaluating him during the offseason program, according to ESPN's Eric Woodyard. Maddox is a Detroit native and looked good during offseason workouts. The former fourth-rounder brings a lot of experience to help Detroit's secondary as a Super Bowl champion and veteran player that spent the last seven years with the Philadelphia Eagles. The 29-year-old signed a one-year deal in free agency with the Lions after starting last season as the starter in the slot for the Eagles before eventually losing the gig to impressive rookie Cooper DeJean. In Detroit, he's expected to be a key backup behind starter Brian Branch.
From RotoBaller
Chicago Bears head coach Ben Johnson singled out rookie fourth-round linebacker Ruben Hyppolite as the player that the coaches saw the most improvement from this spring, according to ESPN's Courtney Cronin. Hyppolite saw plenty of run with the starting defense at weakside linebacker -- a position he didn't have much experience at after playing middle linebacker at Maryland -- with veteran T.J. Edwards sidelined with a soft-tissue injury. "He's done a great job adjusting to that speed as we've gone through, and that's going to have to show up once we do get the pads on," Johnson said. "But I think he's been improving every single day, and really, we're hoping that course continues." The 23-year-old with 4.39-second 40-yard dash speed could be in the lead for the battle for the No. 3 linebacker job heading into training camp.
From RotoBaller
The Washington Commanders' coaching staff noticed that defensive tackle Daron Payne showed more leadership and was more outgoing around the building this offseason, per ESPN's John Keim. Head coach Dan Quinn said Payne had "laser focus" this spring. "He just looks really good, really intent-ful. You can really see him taking that leadership role to the next step. He's been the guy that's really just stood out to me the most from that standpoint," defensive coordinator Joe Whitt said. The 28-year-old had 11.5 sacks in a contract year in 2022 but has posted eight total sacks the last two seasons. He had 96 pass-rush wins and a win rate of 11.6% from 2020-22, but he's recorded just 39 wins and a 7.6% win rate the last two seasons. Washington needs Payne to be more productive in 2025, and if he isn't, he could be cut next offseason for $16 million in savings.
From RotoBaller
ESPN's Tim McManus writes that Philadelphia Eagles wide receiver Danny Gray made an impression this offseason during OTAs and minicamp practices open to reporters, using his 4.33-second speed to stretch the field and accelerate past defenders on catches over the middle. The former third-round pick by the San Francisco 49ers in 2022 dealt with injuries and had just one catch on seven targets for 10 yards in his only season with the team back in 2022. A.J. Brown and DeVonta Smith are the Eagles' clear top two pass-catchers, but McManus points out that there are roster spots up for grabs behind them. Gray will be competing with the likes of Ainias Smith, Avery Williams and Terrace Marshall Jr. in training camp this summer. The Niners cut Gray at the end of training camp last year and quickly signed with Philly, where he spent all of last year on the practice squad.
From RotoBaller
New York Giants safety Dane Belton was making plays seemingly every practice this spring and had three interceptions in the five workouts open to the media. ESPN's Jordan Raanan writes that the former fourth-rounder in 2022 will have a role as the third safety this year, even if he's not a starter. It appeared as though Belton was going to be an afterthought after the team signed Jevon Holland earlier this offseason, but that just hasn't been the case. "He has been really good for us here early. Like he's had a really good spring," defensive coordinator Shane Bowen said. "[We're] finding ways to get him on the field, what he can do for us to help us." The 24-year-old defensive back showed some progress in his third year in the league in 2024, finishing with 56 tackles (28 solo), one sack, one interception, six pass breakups, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery in 17 games (six starts).
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys cornerback Kaiir Elam started only 12 games in three seasons with the Buffalo Bills with two interceptions before the Cowboys acquired him in a trade, but he flashed on numerous occasions in OTAs and minicamp, according to ESPN's Todd Archer. Elam had multiple interceptions in offseason practices and dropped two more while showing an ability to run with receivers. Archer goes on to write that the Cowboys need Elam to be a factor in 2025 with all the uncertainty surrounding cornerback Trevon Diggs (knee) and third-round rookie Shavon Revel Jr. (knee), who are both working their way back from knee surgeries. The Cowboys didn't exercise Elam's fifth-year option after the Bills took him 23rd overall in the 2022 NFL draft out of Florida, so perhaps he's extra motivated going into his first year in Dallas. That's what the Cowboys are banking on.
From RotoBaller
ESPN's Adam Teicher writes that judging from how rookie seventh-round running back Brashard Smith was used in offseason practices, the Kansas City Chiefs have plans for him. The 22-year-old ran a 4.39-second 40-yard dash at the scouting combine and could fit in nicely with other offensive skill players on the team, including receivers Xavier Worthy and Marquise Brown and running back Elijah Mitchell. Smith was a receiver in college before moving to a RB at SMU in his final season, and the Chiefs got him the ball out of the backfield, from the slot and split out wide during spring workouts. Head coach Andy Reid knows a little something about finding ways to use speedy offensive weapons, so fantasy managers shouldn't complete turn away from Smith, even though it will be hard for him to secure a big role in his first year in the NFL.
From RotoBaller