Tue Jul 29 10:38am ET
By JEFF PAUR
Sr Fantasy Writer
Ridley should benefit from new QB
We thought it would be a fun exercise to go over my favorite picks in each round of the draft. So using the ADP, I picked the player that goes in each round that I like to target come draft day. This would kind of be my ideal draft scenario. You can see my starting lineup and full roster at the end of the article for this 12-team league.
Here is what I’m thinking round-by-round. . . . .
Round 1: CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys (5.86). I think Lamb might be the safest first-round pick. He is the clear top target in an offense that is going to throw the ball a ton. The Cowboys running game is a mess. And a healthy Dak Prescott is a huge plus for Lamb as well. I think he is going to have a monster season and make a run at top fantasy receiver in the game.
Round 2: Chase Brown, RB, Bengals (18.65). Brown had a breakout season last year, and I don’t think it was a fluke. He didn’t even open the season as the starter and still managed to finish 10th overall in fantasy scoring. He starts from day one in an explosive offense and should get all the goal-line work. Brown is setup for an even better season this year.
Round 3: Tyreek Hill, WR, Dolphins (26.22). Hill carries some risk, but he was bothered by a wrist injury much of the year, which hindered his production. I don’t think there is a player with a higher ceiling in Round 3 than Hill, which is why I’m taking that risk. He is healthy and has 111 or more receptions three of four seasons. He has something to prove this year, and I think he gets it done.
Round 4: Chuba Hubbard, RB, Panthers (39.12). I have a ton of shares of Hubbard already. I just love the fact he has next to no competition for carries and plays in an offense that could be much better this year if Bryce Young continues his development. Hubbard seems like a really safe pick with a consistent weekly floor. He is an ideal No. 2 fantasy back in my view.
Round 5: Tet McMillan, WR, Panthers (60.83). I hate to target players on bad teams, but McMillan really intrigues me. I just wonder why he isn’t getting the same love as some of the rookie receivers last year - Marvin Harrison, Malik Nabers, Brian Thomas. McMillan is going to get a ton of targets and could have a similar season to Nabers in my view. That is big-time value at this point of the draft.
Round 6: Calvin Ridley, WR, Titans (70.01). Ridley is another one of my favorite targets. He is the clear top option in the Titans passing game. He gets a huge upgrade at quarterback this year, having rookie Cam Ward throwing him passes. Ridley hit the 1,000-yard mark in an awful offense last year with terrible quarterback play. He was targeted 120 times but caught just 64 passes last year. The ceiling is super high for Ridley this coming season. He is going to be a target magnet.
Round 7: Jaylen Warren, RB, Steelers (81.93). Rookie Kaleb Johnson is around and is going to get carries, but Warren is clearly the top back in passing situations. And we know new quarterback Aaron Rodgers wants to throw the ball. This is going to have Warren on the field offense. I like him a lot as a flex play or low-end No. 2 fantasy back in this offense.
Round 8: Evan Engram, TE, Broncos (90.60). Engram heads to the Broncos and an offense that likes the tight end, especially in the red zone. And after Courtland Sutton, the options in the passing game aren’t the best. You could see Engram becoming a favorite target of Bo Nix in a hurry. Engram has some potential for a big first season in Denver.
Round 9: Tyjae Spears, RB, Titans (101.37). Spears was a bust last year but didn’t get the chances you hoped. The Titans are already stating they want more of a split backfield. Spears is a big-play threat with the ball in his hands, so he is the type of home-run hitter I like to have on my bench. He is a good spot play capable of the huge game any given week. And I look for his numbers to be a little more consistent this year, getting more weekly touches.
Round 10: Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys (110.01). I do like going early on a quarterback at times, but Prescott is a target of mine at this cheap price. He is going to throw the ball a ton in this pass-first offense. I can see him passing for 5,000-passing yards and pushing 40 touchdowns. He can be a top-five fantasy quarterback. If you want to wait a little on a quarterback, Prescott is a guy to target. And I like him even better if I take Lamb in Round 1.
Round 11: Jayden Higgins, WR, Texans (132.85). Higgins is another rookie receiver I like a lot this year. He has a good chance to start opposite Nico Collins from day one. And he plays in a passing attack that looks to be a lot better this year. C.J. Stroud wasn’t great in year two but he lacked a lot of quality options in the passing game because of injuries. Higgins can produce some big games as a reserve fantasy receiver.
Round 12: Brandon Aubrey, K, Cowboys (133.67). Normally, I would never act early on a kicker. Ever. Never done it, but my mind is changing. I recently posted a story about teams being the first to draft a kicker. Of those teams, nearly 1/5 finished first or second in their league. Having the best kicker in the game made a difference last year. So for me, I might try it this season to see if it pays off. The price isn’t super high for Aubrey, either. So why not?
Round 13: C.J. Stroud, QB, Texans (153.32). If I’m going to wait on a quarterback, I like to double up pretty quickly. And Stroud is a favorite target of mine. He is dirt cheap after disappointing last season. Stroud gets all sorts of help at receiver this year through the draft and free agency. Remember, this guy was 11th in fantasy quarterback scoring as a rookie.
Round 14: Kyle Monangai, RB, Bears (166.13). Monangai is a big back that could be a real asset in short-yardage work. And we all know new head coach Ben Johnson likes to have a split backfield, so it would not surprise to see Monangai earn a role quickly in this offense. Plus, Johnson has a history of producing some fantasy backs with big touchdown numbers. I like taking a chance on Monangai at this point of the draft, hoping he becomes the goal-line back in Chicago.
Round 15: Cedric Tillman, WR, Browns (169.35). I like to have boom or bust players on my bench. You might have figured that out from the rest of my roster. Tillman certainly fits the bill. He had some big games last year when getting a chance to start, but disappeared in others. He should start from day one, and if Joe Flacco is throwing him passes, you have to like his chances for some more big games this season.
Round 16: Kansas City Chiefs (185.00). I might wait another round or two to grab a defense because the data shows going early on a defense doesn’t really help your chances of winning the league. But for the purposes of this article and filling out my lineup, I’ll go with the Chiefs if I’m taking a defense a little sooner than normal. You can get them after a lot of the top options at the position, but I think they can still be a top-five fantasy option this season. They have an innovative defensive coordinator that gets after the quarterback and causes turnovers. This unit has a lot of talent on that side of the ball, especially at cornerback and along the defensive line.
LINEUP | |
QB: | Dak Prescott |
RB: | Chase Brown |
RB: | Chuba Hubbard |
WR: | CeeDee Lamb |
WR: | Tyreek Hill |
WR: | Tet McMillan |
TE: | Evan Engram |
FLEX: | Calvin Ridley |
K: | Brandon Aubrey |
DEF: | Kansas City Chiefs |
BENCH: | Jaylen Warren |
BENCH: | Tyjae Spears |
BENCH: | Jayden Higgins |
BENCH: | C.J. Stroud |
BENCH: | Kyle Monangai |
BENCH: | Cedric Tillman |
Jeff Paur is a two-time finalist for FSWA Fantasy Football Writer of the Year and won the FSWA award for Best Fantasy Football Article on the Web in 2011. He also was the most accurate expert in 2012, winning the FSTA Fantasy Football Accuracy Award. If you have any questions for Jeff, email him at jeff@rtsports.com. Follow Jeff on Twitter @jeffpaur.
Five Fantasy Football Sleepers
Cleveland Browns starting center Ethan Pocic (knee) left Saturday's preseason finale against the Los Angeles Rams with a knee injury, the team announced. Pocic "appeared to get rolled up on during a 14-yard pass from quarterback Joe Flacco to rookie running back Dylan Sampson," according to Dan Labbe of Cleveland.com. Pocic exited in the first quarter, and the Browns replaced him with Luke Wypler. The 30-year-old Pocic is entering his fourth season as Cleveland's No. 1 center and has started in all 44 of his appearances with the team. He made a career-high 16 starts a year ago and ranked 28th among 64 centers at Pro Football Focus. If he misses any regular-season time, it would be an unwelcome development for Flacco and the Browns' running backs.
From RotoBaller
Denver Broncos head coach Sean Payton noted more than a week ago that he would use mostly starters in the team's preseason finale against the New Orleans Saints for eight to 10 plays, according to Chris Tomasson of the Denver Gazette. On offense to begin Saturday's game, rookie second-round running back RJ Harvey was the starting RB. Veteran J.K. Dobbins will also be heavily involved in Denver's backfield this year, but he's been injury-prone in his career, and Harvey wasn't drafted in the second round for no reason. The 24-year-old from Central Florida was very productive in college despite standing at only 5-foot-8 and 205 pounds. While Harvey won't be a workhorse right away in the NFL, that could quickly develop if Dobbins misses more time due to injury. The rookie is shifty, quick and tough to tackle and should be a low-end RB2/high-end RB3 target for fantasy managers.
From RotoBaller
Pittsburgh Steelers tight end Jonnu Smith (knee) is back in uniform at practice on Saturday after missing the entire preseason with a knee injury, according to Mike DeFabo of The Athletic. This will be Smith's first practice since tweaking his knee on Aug. 5. The 30-year-old should be on track to play in the Week 1 regular-season opener on Sunday, Sept. 7, against the New York Jets. However, after a career year in 2024 with the Miami Dolphins, Smith's fantasy value took a huge hit after being traded to Pittsburgh in the offseason. He should still be involved in offenive coordinator Arthur Smith's system, but he's expected to take a back seat to incumbent Pat Friermuth. In single-TE fantasy formats, managers can avoid Smith on draft day. Outside of his 88-884-8 line last year, Smith's best season was a 50-582-3 line the year prior in Atlanta.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans running back Nick Chubb will not suit up for the team's preseason finale on Saturday versus the Detroit Lions, according to Jonathan M. Alexander of the Houston Chronicle. Alexander notes that unless Chubb is dealing with an injury, he's likely a lock to start in Week 1 of the regular season against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, Sept. 7, with Joe Mixon (ankle, foot) still sidelined due to injury. Dameon Pierce, rookie Woody Marks and Dare Ogunbowale were all in uniform for Saturday's contest in Detroit. In his lone preseason appearance, the 29-year-old Chubb had five carries for 25 yards and caught one pass for a gain of four yards. Chubb, a four-time Pro Bowler, might get the start in Week 1, but Houston figures to mix and match in their backfield until Mixon is able to return. He did not look like the same explosive back last year after a serious knee injury in 2023 and is only the RB53 at RotoBaller.
From RotoBaller
Houston Texans quarterback C.J. Stroud is not playing in the team's preseason finale on Saturday against the Detroit Lions, according to Aaron Wilson of KPRC 2 Sports. Other starters that will sit out include running back Nich Chubb, receivers Nico Collins and Christian Kirk and tight end Dalton Schultz. Stroud and the rest of Houston's offense will be looking to get off on the right foot in a Week 1 matchup against the Los Angeles Rams on Sunday, Sept. 7. The 23-year-old Stroud has enough pass-catchers to rebound from a frustrating 2024 campaign, but it will all depend on how well Houston's offensive line holds up after he took a whopping 52 sacks in 17 regular-season starts last year. The former first-rounder threw for 3,727 yards, 20 touchdowns and 12 picks in 2024 and is currently ranked as the QB19 in fantasy going into Year 3.
From RotoBaller
JP Finlay of NBC Sports Washington thinks it's interesting that Washington Commanders running back Chris Rodriguez Jr. is getting carries in the team's preseason finale on Saturday against the Baltimore Ravens with rookie Jacory Croskey-Merritt sitting out. It "might tell the RB depth-chart story" heading into the Week 1 regular-season opener in early September. The Commanders' backfield picture is still a bit blurry, but after the team traded Brian Robinson Jr. to the San Francisco 49ers, Croskey-Merritt has a real opportunity at a big role on early downs in D.C. in 2025. Austin Ekeler will be the team's primary pass-catching/third-down back, which leaves JCM and Rodriguez fighting for the RB1 role. Washington also likes Jeremy McNichols, though, and this backfield could be more of a timeshare. At the very least, though, Croskey-Merritt is quickly rising on draft boards as an RB3/4 target.
From RotoBaller
Philadelphia Eagles quarterback Tanner McKee (finger) is uncertain for Week 1, as reported by Zach Berman of The Athletic. Eagles coach Nick Sirianni said, "We'll see," when asked about the club's primary backup, so Philadelphia may have to turn to rookie Kyle McCord or Dorian Thompson-Robinson in the No. 2 spot. In any case, it's the Jalen Hurts show in Philly for as a long as he's healthy, relegating McKee mostly to an emergency spot in fantasy leagues with very deep rosters.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets head coach Aaron Glenn said that wide receiver Xavier Gipson (shoulder) was held out of Friday's game because of the injury, according to a report from Zach Rosenblatt of The Athletic. The third-year receiver's primary value to the team is as a return man, but the injury could impact whether he's ready for Week 1. Gipson sustained the injury in the Jets' second preseason game, which isn't ideal for a player uncertain to make the first 53-man roster. New York signed Josh Reynolds and Tyler Johnson this offseason to a receiver corps that also includes Garrett Wilson and Allen Lazard.
From RotoBaller
New York Jets head coach Aaron Glenn said quarterback Tyrod Taylor (knee) should be ready for Week 1, as reported by Rich Cimini of ESPN. The veteran has missed most of the preseason recovering from an arthroscopic procedure, but looks to have a role behind projected Jets starter Justin Fields. As per usual, Taylor's fantasy value will totally depend on the health of the starter in front of him, making him a useful insurance policy in deeper formats.
From RotoBaller
Wide receiver Elic Ayomanor started and caught all three of his targets for 25 yards in Tennessee's preseason-concluding victory against the Minnesota Vikings on Friday. The rookie from Stanford already has developed a connection with Titans quarterback Cameron Ward and looks to be carving out a role for 2025. Ayomanor set up a touchdown with a red zone target on Friday, a week after hauling in a 47-yard pass from Ward. Though Calvin Ridley is all but sure to be the Titans' No. 1 receiver, Ayomanor's competition for playing time is journeyman Van Jefferson and fellow rookie Chimere Dike, making immediate playing time look realistic.
From RotoBaller
Dallas Cowboys running back Jaydon Blue (ankle) said he's not worried about the injury sustained during Friday's game, according to Jon Machota of The Athletic. The rookie is stepping into one of the most uncertain backfield situations in the league, so calling the injury "nothing serious" is a positive development for Dallas. The team signed short-term deals with running backs Javonte Williams and Miles Sanders for a rotation that also includes Deuce Vaughn, giving Blue a very realistic path to playing time during his first season. He remains an intriguing rookie breakout candidate on a Cowboys offense that has significant skill-position talent around him.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders quarterback Jayden Daniels will not play in the team's final preseason game against the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday. Daniels is joined on the bench by most of the team's starters, including wide receiver Deebo Samuel Sr. and left tackle Laremy Tunsil. Daniels played one drive in the team's second preseason game against the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday without attempting a pass. The 24-year-old can now turn his full attention to Washington's Week 1 matchup against the division rival New York Giants. Daniels is a high-end fantasy QB1, but he may be without his top weapon in wide receiver Terry McLaurin to open the season due to McLaurin's ongoing contract dispute with the team.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons tight end Feleipe Franks caught all three of his targets for 24 yards, most of which came on a 23-yard catch and run that he was able to take in for a touchdown. Franks also caught one pass for nine yards last week and was not targeted in the first preseason game. He was battling Teagan Quitoriano for the third tight end spot behind Kyle Pitts Sr. and Charlie Woerner, and with Quitoriano not receiving a target in the preseason, Franks appears to have a leg up. Unfortunately, third-string tight ends don't have any value for fantasy, so no need to roster him in any leagues.
From RotoBaller
Washington Commanders rookie running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt will not play in the team's preseason finale against the Baltimore Ravens on Saturday, per Nicki Jhabvala of The Athletic. A seventh-round pick this past April, Croskey-Merritt has been one of the breakout stars of the summer. Washington traded running back Brian Robinson Jr. to the San Francisco 49ers on Friday, opening up a spot for Croskey-Merritt to be the team's early-down workhorse right away. Veteran Austin Ekeler should handle the majority of passing-down work, and Washington also has a pair of backs with NFL experience in Chris Rodriguez Jr. and Jeremy McNichols. Notably, Croskey-Merritt and Ekeler are the Washington backs who will not play on Saturday, which could be an indication of the current pecking order in the backfield. Croskey-Merritt profiles as an RB4 with upside in redraft fantasy leagues.
From RotoBaller
Tennessee Titans wide receiver Van Jefferson recorded 102 yards and a touchdown on three catches in his team's 23-13 preseason victory over the Minnesota Vikings on Friday. Jefferson scored a 65-yard touchdown on a long catch-and-run in the second quarter. The 29-year-old is entering his first season in Tennessee after logging 24 catches for 276 yards and two touchdowns in 17 games for the Pittsburgh Steelers in 2024. Jefferson projects to open the season as the WR3 in Tennessee alongside veterans Calvin Ridley and Tyler Lockett. However, he may struggle to hold off the team's pair of fourth-round rookie wide receivers, Elic Ayomanor and Chimere Dike. Jefferson should be off the radar of fantasy managers in 2025.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | Commanders rookie running back Jacory Croskey-Merritt moves up the depth chart with the trade of Brian Robinson to the 49ers. Dynasty Analysis: It's now officially "Bill" season. Still, expectations should be tempered. Yes, Croskey-Merritt has torn up camp by all accounts and clearly should be on rosters everywhere. However, Chris Rodriguez may have already been tabbed as the goal-line and short-yardage back for the team and Austin Ekeler is still a great pass-catcher and option for a lead back. Croskey-Merritt has the looks of a late round rookie gem this year and that's exciting but his ADP could also skyrocket a little prematurely as people go overboard.
Dynasty | The trade of Brian Robinson to the 49ers creates an uncertain backfield in San Francisco. Dynasty Analysis: If there's a loser in the Robinson deal, it's probably Guerendo. He would likely split time with Robinson should Christian McCaffrey be injured but this deal makes it abundantly clear San Francisco is concerned about his injury history and not willing to leave themselves vulnerable should CMC go down. Guerendo has been a solid handcuff to own over the past two seasons but even if he was to remain the RB2, it's hard to see a situation where Robinson doesn't still split time with him. His dynasty ADP is going to slip over the next month.
Atlanta Falcons head coach Raheem Morris said that right tackle Kaleb McGary (leg) will miss "significant time" and could be placed on injured reserve after injuring his leg in practice on Wednesday, per ESPN's Marc Raimondi. Atlanta signed McGary to a two-year, $30 million extension earlier this month. He's started 92 games across six seasons with Atlanta, and Pro Football Focus graded him as the 17th-best run-blocking tackle in the NFL in 2024. With backup tackle Storm Norton (ankle) set to miss six to eight weeks after undergoing ankle surgery, the Falcons now have a massive hole on the right side of their offensive line. With a left-handed quarterback in Michael Penix Jr., McGary's absence could be a major issue for the team's pass protection as well as its run game.
From RotoBaller
Atlanta Falcons third-string quarterback Easton Stick completed 20 of 28 passes for 198 yards and a touchdown in Friday's 31-13 preseason loss to the Cowboys, adding three rushes for 18 yards. He also threw one interception in the game. The 29-year-oldhas now thrown a touchdown pass in each of the team's three preseason games and appears to have solidifiedhimself as the third QB option behind Michael Penix Jr. and Kirk Cousins, especially with the team waiving Emory Jones this past week, who also had been used in the preseason. Without a starting gig, however, Stick won't be relevant for fantasy unless both of the other quarterbacks become unavailable.
From RotoBaller
Dynasty | The trade of Brian Robinson to the 49ers pushes rookie running back Jordan James down the depth chart. Dynasty Analysis: James has been a popular late round rookie pick but Robinson's arrival throws a big bucket of cold water on his short-term value. Should James make the team behind Christian McCaffrey, Robinson and Isaac Guerendo, his path to playing time looks murky. No longer fully guaranteed a roster spot, James is a player to monitor the last week of the preseason as he may need to show something to avoid the practice squad. Regardless, he looks to be fourth on the depth chart and that's not anything to get too excited about.